SPC MD 1568



MD 1568 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 409… FOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINAS…SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND

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Mesoscale Discussion 1568
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Areas affected...northeast North Carolinas...southeast Virginia and
southern Maryland

Concerning...Tornado Watch 409...

Valid 112216Z - 112345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 409 continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest threat for isolated tornadoes is expected to
persist through early evening across southeast Virginia into far
northeast North Carolina. The tornado threat may increase as far
north as southern Maryland, where a local extension of WW 409 might
be needed.

DISCUSSION...The primary threat for isolated tornadoes should
persist through early evening with a couple of outer bands located
over southeast Virginia, northeast of the center of Michael.
Discrete elements continue to be observed within the bands including
supercell structures. VWP data from Wakefield indicate large, 0-1 km
hodographs where surface winds remain backed to easterly. The
low-level jet accompanying Michael will shift east, northeast
through eastern VA next couple hours resulting in an increase in
low-level shear as far north as southern MD where the threat for
isolated tornadoes may increase through early evening. However, the
remaining threat appears limited in area north of the current WW, so
rather than a new WW issuance, best course of action may be to
locally extend WW 409 into southern MD as needed.

..Dial.. 10/11/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...

LAT...LON   37967530 38097604 38567622 38547558 38317514 37967530 

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