SPC Oct 11, 2018 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z


Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across
southwest and south-central Texas Saturday.


Remnants of TC Sergio will deamplify and eject across TX during the
day3 period. This feature is expected to enhance LLJ over
north-central TX early Saturday which will aid widespread convection
along the I-20 corridor. Much of this activity will be elevated in
nature and driven by low-level warm advection. Forecast soundings do
not exhibit appreciable buoyancy with this convection and the severe
risk should be low with storms rooted above the boundary layer.

However, boundary layer is expected to warm across the Concho Valley
region of southwest TX but this will likely occur in the wake of the
ejecting short wave. While large-scale forcing for ascent should
shift east of this region, strong thunderstorms may ultimately
evolve across southwest and south-central TX as a pronounced front
surges into this part of the state. Deep-layer shear will be more
than adequate for sustaining updrafts and a MRGL Risk has been
introduced to account for this threat.

..Darrow.. 10/11/2018

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