SPC Oct 11, 2018 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook



SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes are possible today across central and eastern North
Carolina and southeast Virginia.

...Mid Atlantic Region...
The center of Michael continues to track quickly northeastward
across SC this morning, and is forecast to move across NC and into
southeast VA.  Overnight, a large shield of heavy rain has been
present ahead of the center of Michael, with very few discernible
convective elements that pose a risk of rotation.  However, ahead of
this precipitation shield, scattered discrete showers/thunderstorms
have been occurring with occasional weak rotational couplets.  It is
this region of the storm that will pose a risk of tornadoes through
the day.

A consensus of CAM solutions suggest that low-level baroclinicity
will increase ahead of the system from north-central NC into
southeast VA.  This corridor will see a rapid increase in vertical
shear profiles later this morning, with model forecast soundings
showing helicity values of 300-400 m2/s2.  Early visible satellite
imagery also shows breaks in the cloud cover in this region, which
should help to boost temperatures into the upper 70s or lower 80s
and destabilize an already very moist air mass.  These factors
suggest the potential for increasing coverage of discrete supercell
convection and a few tornadoes today over the ENH risk area.  Other
more isolated cells capable of brief tornadoes may occur across
southeast NC, and perhaps farther north along the Mid-Atlantic
coast.  The center of Michael will move offshore by late evening,
ending the severe risk.

..Hart/Smith.. 10/11/2018

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