SPC Oct 11, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook



SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few marginally severe thunderstorms with hail and strong wind
gusts may develop across parts of west Texas Friday night.

...West Texas...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move across northern Mexico on
Friday and into west Texas Friday night. Ahead of the approaching
system, a moist airmass will be in place in the Rio Grande Valley.
Some moisture advection should take place during the day with
surface dewpoints across parts of west Texas reaching the lower to
mid 60s F. In response, a corridor of moderate instability should be
in place from southwest Texas into the Big Bend vicinity by Friday
evening. Although a cap is forecast to gradually weaken across west
Texas on Friday, thunderstorm development is not expected until
later in the evening as large-scale ascent increases ahead of the
approaching shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to increase
in coverage around midnight across far west Texas with convection
moving across the Midland area after midnight. Forecast soundings at
06Z on Saturday for Midland show MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg with 0-6 km
shear around 50 kt. This should be enough for an isolated severe
threat. However, lapse rates are forecast to be poor which should
keep any threat marginal. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the
primary hazards.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  <2%     - None
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Broyles.. 10/11/2018

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