SPC MD 1572



MD 1572 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410… FOR SOUTHWEST TEXAS

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Mesoscale Discussion 1572
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

Areas affected...southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410...

Valid 130358Z - 130600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410
continues.

SUMMARY...Primary severe threat is expected to persist next couple
hours over the southeastern portion of WW 410 generally between
Sanderson and Fort Stockton where large hail, locally damaging wind
gusts and a tornado remain possible. Farther north and west toward
Midland, additional storms may develop posing a primary risk of
large hail and locally strong wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Late this evening the most robust storms remain over
southwest TX between Sanderson and Fort Stockton. This activity
initiated over the higher terrain and is moving through the
moderately unstable warm sector where up to 45 kt effective bulk
shear will continue to support supercell structures. These updrafts
remain rooted near the surface and are capable of mainly large hail
and locally damaging wind gusts. Some increase in the low-level jet
is expected into the early morning in response to forcing for ascent
accompanying a deamplifying shortwave trough. This process should
augment 0-1 km hodograph size and support potential for the warm
sector storms to develop low-level mesocyclones and possibly a
tornado. The area farther north from Wink to Midland is north of a
quasistationary front where the near surface-layer is less moist and
not as unstable. Nevertheless, low-level theta-e advection above the
surface layer and ascent accompanying the approaching shortwave
trough should contribute to additional destabilization and
thunderstorm development. Hail is expected to be the primary threat
in this region, though locally strong convective gusts are also
possible.

..Dial.. 10/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30090417 31860384 32240253 32100147 30720142 30170182
            29990324 30090417 

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