SPC Oct 12, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook



SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes remain possible tonight across southeast Virginia
into the Delmarva region.

...01Z Update...

...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Tropical Storm Michael...
Recent (i.e. around 00Z) KAKQ radar imagery has recently shown
several circulations over the Virginia Tidewater region as a
convective band moves northward into the region. Several of these
circulations, while brief, have been co-located with low correlation
coefficient values indicative of a tornado debris signature. 

Michael is currently centered about 20 miles southeast of RZZ (along
the NC/VA border) and is moving northeastward at 20-25 mph. As
discussed in MCD 1569, the threat for tornadoes is expected to
persist across the Virginia Tidewater and southern Delmarva regions,
where low to mid-level winds remain strong and modest instability
remains (as sampled by the 00Z WAL sounding).

...Elsewhere...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across the
Four Corners region. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated
later tonight from Far West TX across central OK and into far
south-central KS as mid-level moisture associated with Tropical
Storm Sergio interacts with a strengthening low-level jet.

..Mosier.. 10/12/2018

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