SPC Oct 12, 2018 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook



SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
central Texas on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A strong area of high pressure will spread southward across much of
the West as a shortwave trough drops south toward the Great Basin.
To the east, another area of high pressure will move from the OH
Valley toward the Mid Atlantic behind a rapidly departing upper
trough. Meanwhile, a southern stream wave will move across southern
CA into AZ, preceded by the remnants of TC Sergio which will affect
the southern Plains with rain and thunderstorms mainly over TX and
OK.

...TX...
Beneath a band of 50-60 kt midlevel southwest flow aloft, the
remnants of TC Sergio will enhance lift and moisture as it travels
rapidly eastward across TX and OK toward the Arklatex. The surface
low is forecast to move from southwest TX toward north TX during the
day, with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints spreading north behind a warm
front. Rain is likely north of the warm front into OK, but
instability will be weak. Modest MUCAPE values of 1000-1500 j/kg are
forecast across the warm sector in TX, along with veering winds with
height which would typically support supercells. However, a notable
midlevel subsidence inversion will be present, reducing instability
and likely mitigating storm severity. Still, a few cells may produce
locally severe wind or hail near the low track.

...AZ...
Cool air aloft with the upper trough and daytime heating will aid
afternoon storm development over south central AZ. Forecast
soundings show strong shear aloft, but generally weak low-level
winds. A few cells may produce small hail, but severe weather is not
currently expected.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Jewell.. 10/12/2018

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