SPC MD 1573


MD 1573 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1573
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

Areas affected...Portions of west/central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410...

Valid 130640Z - 130745Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410

SUMMARY...Strong/severe storms may organize into a small cluster
that accelerates east towards central Texas early this morning, and
downstream watch issuance is probable within the next hour.

DISCUSSION...A few strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing across
west Texas near/south of a warm front, where more favorable
surface-based buoyancy is yielding a greater severe threat. Initial
discrete cells over eastern Pecos/Terrell Cos have remained sparse,
perhaps due to outpacing stronger large-scale ascent associated with
the primary shortwave trough. However, regional radar data have
shown increasing activity (likely aided by the aforementioned
ascent) between Pecos and Fort Stockton. The front may serve as a
focus for eastward propagation/acceleration across the Concho
Valley. In turn, there is some potential for cells to grow upscale
into a small bowing cluster with an accompanying threat of damaging
winds. Additionally, a modest increase in warm advection within the
0-2km AGL layer could further support isolated supercells (capable
of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado) ahead of this
cluster. A downstream watch is probable within the next hour.

..Picca.. 10/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   30219981 30240120 30380291 30550344 31050346 31730328
            32020227 32040219 31750023 31259885 30969864 30479858
            30259868 30219907 30219981 

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