SPC MD 1576


MD 1576 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1576
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

Areas affected...portions of central and into eastern Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 413...

Valid 131856Z - 132100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 413 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/locally severe storm risk will continue
over the next few hours.  Locally damaging winds, and a couple of
tornadoes, will remain the primary threat.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of convection --
including a few strong/locally severe storms -- extending from a
surface low just south of the DFW metroplex, and the warm front
immediately to its east, west-southwestward across central Texas to
the JCT (Junction TX) area, along the trailing cold front.  Other
storms -- with occasional/weak mid-level circulation -- are
occurring within a band over the Coastal Plain, centered from
near/west of VCT (Victoria TX) to near CLL (College Station TX).

At this time, the most significant storms are occurring in a small
cluster over the Kaufman/Ellis/Navarro county area, with a couple of
low-level rotation centers evident on radar at this time.  Other
cells, weaker but still potentially severe, extend both northeast,
and west-southwest a few counties.

While the low-level environment across northeast Texas remains to
the north of the surface warm front and thus remains stable, a small
area east and southeast of the watch -- within the warm sector --
could support expansion of the risk with time, beyond the bounds of
WW 413.  We will continue to monitor trends, with an eye toward
potential need for a new/downstream watch over the next hour or so.

..Goss.. 10/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   30599904 30809912 31379874 32099703 32609619 32379436
            31759420 30739520 30439617 30299730 30599904 

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