SPC MD 1578


MD 1578 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1578
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

Areas affected...Northeast TX and northeast LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 414...

Valid 132341Z - 140115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 414 continues.

SUMMARY...Local spatial extension has been made for WW 414 into
extreme northwest Louisiana, with a continued tornado threat across
the remaining portion of the watch.

DISCUSSION...Early evening surface analyses indicated an area of low
pressure in northeast TX (located near TYR at 23Z) with a warm front
extending east through northern LA to central MS.  The horizontal
thermal gradient of this warm front in northwest LA as tightened in
the last 1-1.5 hours as precipitation and clouds have resulted in
cooling surface temperatures in and around SHV.  South of the cloud
shield and warm front, temperatures are in the lower 80s F, while
the reading at 23Z at SHV was 69 F.  The thermodynamic environment
is more stable with eastward extent across LA.  Given the time of
day with the loss of daytime heating and clouds/precipitation
spreading across northern LA, the potential for further extension of
this watch is unlikely.

Although these same factors hinder the ongoing thermodynamic profile
across northwest LA with the presence of cloudiness and some
precipitation, low-level environment remains supportive for
rotation/tornado threat near the warm front, given the presence of
strong vertically veering winds.

..Peters/Guyer.. 10/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   33029397 32999349 32239332 32019315 31789381 31149410
            31099480 30909524 30839620 30969618 31119580 31559563
            31679525 31819529 31869473 32319479 32679444 32749406

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