MD 1582 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TX

Mesoscale Discussion 1582
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

Areas affected...Portions of central and east TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 142305Z - 150100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and strong to locally damaging wind
threat may exist this evening. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...A supercell that developed earlier this afternoon
between Abilene and San Angelo, TX has produced isolated large hail
and wind damage over the past two hours as it moved northeastward
while slowly weakening. A sharp surface cold front will continue
moving southward this evening across central and east TX, and
additional convective development will probably occur along/near the
front given enhanced low-level convergence. With strong mid and
upper-level southwesterly winds present over this region,
thunderstorms will have a tendency to move northeastward and be
undercut by the cold front. Even so, the shallow nature of the front
coupled with sufficient elevated instability should allow for
continued storm maintenance and intensity for a couple of hours
after cold front passage at any particular location. Effective bulk
shear of 50-60+ kt should initially favor supercell structures, with
an associated risk for large hail given the unidirectional
mid/upper-level flow. Some strong/gusty winds may also occur with
any development along or just ahead of the front where storms would
be more likely to be surface based. There will likely be a tendency
for storms to grow upscale later this evening into a line or several
clusters given the linear low-level forcing of the front. The need
for a watch remains unclear, but one may be needed depending on
convective trends.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 10/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON   31689858 32099872 32439861 32549745 32669659 32809596
            32999530 33039478 32709456 32189499 31859538 31659602
            31499683 31459758 31689858 

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