October 14, 2018
SPC MD 1582

MD 1582 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1582 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0605 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018 Areas affected...Portions of central and east TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 142305Z - 150100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and strong to locally damaging wind threat may exist this evening. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...A supercell that developed earlier this afternoon between Abilene and San Angelo, TX has produced isolated large hail and wind damage over the past two hours as it moved northeastward while slowly weakening. A sharp surface cold front will continue moving southward this evening across central and east TX, and additional convective development will probably occur along/near the front given enhanced low-level convergence. With strong mid and upper-level southwesterly winds present over this region, thunderstorms will have a tendency to move northeastward and be undercut by the cold front. Even so, the shallow nature of the front coupled with sufficient elevated instability should allow for continued storm maintenance and intensity for a couple of hours after cold front passage at any particular location. Effective bulk shear of 50-60+ kt should initially favor supercell structures, with an associated risk for large hail given the unidirectional mid/upper-level flow. Some strong/gusty winds may also occur with any development along or just ahead of the front where storms would be more likely to be surface based. There will likely be a tendency for storms to grow upscale later this evening into a line or several clusters given the linear low-level forcing of the front. The need for a watch remains unclear, but one may be needed depending on convective trends. ..Gleason/Guyer.. 10/14/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... LAT...LON 31689858 32099872 32439861 32549745 32669659 32809596 32999530 33039478 32709456 32189499 31859538 31659602 31499683 31459758 31689858