SPC MD 1586



MD 1586 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ INTO DE

MD 1586 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1586
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Areas affected...East-central and southern NJ into DE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 160418Z - 160615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A fast-moving low-topped band of showers may produce minor
wind damage to mainly trees across east-central and southern New
Jersey and Delaware during the next 1-2 hours (through 1-2 AM EDT),
before moving off the Atlantic coast.

DISCUSSION...At 0410Z, radar imagery showed a low-topped band of
showers extending from northeast to southwest NJ (Monmouth to Salem
Counties, respectively) to northern DE and the northern Chesapeake
Bay area.  This band of showers is moving to the east at 40 kt,
while VWP data across the discussion area indicated strong westerly
tropospheric winds, including 50-kt at 0.5-km above radar level. 
Trends in surface observations across DE into central NJ since 02Z
indicated rising temperatures ahead of the convective band. 
Modifying the 00Z Wallops Island sounding with surface data at KACY
resulted in buoyancy extending high enough for potential lightning
production.  Objective analyses showed ongoing destabilization ahead
of the band of convection, with MUCAPE around 500 J/kg.  Given these
factors combined with the fast forward speed and strength of the
winds just off the surface, a few locally strong wind gusts cannot
be ruled out as the convective line advances eastward through
0430-06Z.

..Peters/Edwards.. 10/16/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...

LAT...LON   39377573 39607528 40147403 39887404 39327439 38807487
            38487502 38417540 38467573 38917578 39377573 

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