SPC MD 1589



MD 1589 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST AZ

MD 1589 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1589
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Areas affected...Southeast AZ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 212026Z - 212200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong thunderstorms are possible into the evening
hours across southeast Arizona. Gusty winds and marginally severe
hail are the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...Northern extent of higher moisture plume (PW values
around 1") currently extends across northern Mexico into southeast
AZ. Cu field is deepening within this plume where strong
boundary-layer heating has has allowed surface temperatures to warm
into the mid 80s. Forecast soundings suggest as readings rise
another degree or so, and boundary layer deepens, low-level flow
should veer across western Pima county which may enhance convergence
near this deepening Cu field. Latest CAMs suggest a few strong
thunderstorms could evolve over eastern Pima and Cochise Counties
where current thermodynamic profiles are supportive of robust
updrafts. Given the modest shear observed across this region a few
storms could exhibit weak rotation as they propagate east.
Marginally severe hail and gusty winds are the primary threats.

..Darrow/Kerr.. 10/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...

LAT...LON   30991114 32251205 32741073 31300983 30991114 

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