SPC MD 1592



MD 1592 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTER INTO SOUTHEAST AZ AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NM

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Mesoscale Discussion 1592
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Areas affected...portions of center into southeast AZ and extreme
southwest NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 231805Z - 232000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms may produce hail and gusty winds
across parts of central into southeast AZ and perhaps extreme
southwest NM. Overall threat will remain limited and a watch is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Isolated convection will continue to become
increasingly surface based this afternoon as a modestly moist
airmass continues to destabilize. Cloud cover across parts of the
area has limited instability with north and eastward extent.
However, RAP forecast soundings still indicate steep midlevel lapse
rates with adequate deep layer shear profiles to support some threat
for hail. Where clearing has been more prevalent, greater
instability may help to overcome rather poor 0-3km shear profile. As
such, stronger cells may produce hail and gusty winds. Overall
threat will remain marginal as deep layer shear lessens with time
across the region, leading to largely disorganized convection and/or
brief stronger updrafts.

..Leitman/Darrow.. 10/23/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   31301103 31531173 33401209 34071242 34471234 34741187
            34801121 34631049 34271006 32960919 32420870 31910828
            31320812 31320848 31300888 31320929 31301103 

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