SPC MD 1593



MD 1593 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN RI INTO SOUTHEAST MA

MD 1593 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1593
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Areas affected...far eastern RI into southeast MA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 231954Z - 232100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Showers and storms will continue to show signs of
rotation. However, threat will remain limited and no watch is
expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have exhibited moderate low to
mid-level rotation recently as they track east-northeast from
eastern RI into southeast MA. Low level shear profiles are being
maximized across this area due to backed flow to the south of a
surface front draped across MA, and BOX VWP data indicates 0-1km SRH
around 140 m2/s2.  While shear profiles will continue to support
rotation, very meager instability across the area (less than 250
J/kg per 19Z mesoanalysis) will limit longevity of any increased
rotational signatures. Therefore, overall threat will remain limited
and any increase in low level rotation will be short-lived.

..Leitman/Darrow.. 10/23/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...

LAT...LON   41877151 42217119 42347056 41966991 41686992 41427071
            41397140 41627153 41877151 

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