SPC MD 1595



MD 1595 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR COASTAL LOUISIANA

MD 1595 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1595
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 AM CDT Thu Oct 25 2018

Areas affected...coastal Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 250756Z - 251000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal risk for locally strong wind gusts and perhaps
a brief tornado will exist next few hours over a portion of coastal
Louisiana. However the threat is expected to remain too limited for
a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms continues developing over the
northwest Gulf within a low-level warm advection regime and in
association with ascent attending a vorticity maximum embedded
within the base of a progressive shortwave trough. A warm front
persists in vicinity of the LA coast, and this boundary may move a
little farther inland this morning. The largest 0-1 km hodographs
remain just north of this front where the surface layer is more
stable. While general trend has been for storms to become less
organized as they approach the coast due to limited buoyancy, some
updraft rotation continues to be observed offshore, and there is
some concern that a couple of storms could pose at least a marginal
risk for a brief tornado as they interact with the warm front. Due
to the very limited inland extent and marginal nature of the threat,
a WW is not anticipated.

..Dial/Hart.. 10/25/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29849234 29739161 29619083 29579000 29458932 29058942
            29069080 29359175 29429223 29449265 29599302 29809295
            29849234 

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