SPC MD 1596


MD 1596 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1596
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 PM CDT Fri Oct 26 2018

Areas affected...Parts of eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 270019Z - 270215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Some risk for thunderstorms with embedded mesocyclones,
accompanied by potential for a tornado or locally damaging wind
gust, may still develop across the northeastern North Carolina
coastal plain and Outer Banks vicinity through 10 PM to Midnight
EDT.  However, while trends will continue to be monitored, this
threat currently appears low and the need for a watch is not

DISCUSSION...Convection with at least weak embedded mesocyclones has
been evident off the North Carolina coast, as a modest surface low
progresses inland of South Carolina coastal areas, near/west of
Myrtle Beach.  Further deepening of the low is forecast as it
continues northeastward across the Carolina coastal plain, toward
the Tidewater region, through 04-06Z.  As it does, strongest 850 mb
flow (with an east/southeasterly component) is forecast to precede
it, gradually spreading northeastward across southeastern Virginia,
northeastern North Carolina, the Outer Banks and nearby offshore

Across the Outer Banks and inland of coastal areas, latest Rapid
Refresh forecast soundings suggest that largest low-level hodographs
will generally remain focused within the cool/stable low-level
environment preceding the warm front, with low-level hodographs
shrinking and becoming more linear within the warm sector.  Thus,
while it appears the warm sector may spread inland across at least
the Outer Banks and northeastern North Carolina coastal plain,
accompanied by weak boundary layer destabilization during the 02-04Z
time frame, the potential (if any) for convection capable of
producing tornadoes, and even locally damaging wind gusts, seems
likely to remain limited.

..Kerr/Goss.. 10/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   35087733 35977671 36427594 36267505 35417498 34527601
            34437661 34687717 35087733 

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