SPC MD 1597



MD 1597 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO

MD 1597 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1597
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Sun Oct 28 2018

Areas affected...southwest through south central Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 281949Z - 282145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of convectively enhanced thunderstorm
gusts near severe levels are possible through early evening. Threat
is very marginal, and a watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...As of mid afternoon a broken band of shallow convection
with sparse lightning is developing over northwest OH along an
eastward-advancing cold front and in association with ascent
accompanying a progressive shortwave trough. Strongest surface-layer
destabilization is occurring south of this activity across southwest
OH where temperatures have warmed to 55-60 F which, along with
steepening lapse rates, are contributing to 200-400 J/kg MLCAPE. As
the zone of ascent continues east-southeast, additional convection
may develop farther south along the front within corridor of greater
instability and where stronger winds in the 1-2 km layer reside.
Tendency has been for the winds to veer just ahead of the front,
limiting convergence along this boundary. This in addition to
limited low-level moisture and instability suggest updrafts will
remain weak/shallow. Nevertheless, downward mixing of stronger winds
aloft may contribute to occasional gusts near 40 kt outside of
convection with a few gusts approaching severe levels possible with
any sustained line/bowing segment through early evening.

..Dial/Grams.. 10/28/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...ILN...IWX...

LAT...LON   40788427 40298302 39818228 39098248 39238356 39778442
            40788427 

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