SPC MD 1598



MD 1598 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

MD 1598 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1598
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Mon Oct 29 2018

Areas affected...Far Southern New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 291239Z - 291515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal tornado and strong wind-gust threat will be
possible over the next few hours. The threat is not expected to be
great enough to warrant issuing a watch this morning.

DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level
trough moving east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic. Strong
lift appears to be occurring ahead of the upper-level trough near
the left exit region of the mid-level jet. In addition, a surface
trough is located across southern New England. Ahead of this
feature, warm advection is occurring across Rhode Island and eastern
Massachusetts where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 50s F.
In response, surface-based CAPE has increased to about 500 J/kg as
shown on the Chatham, MA 12Z sounding. This sounding also shows 0-6
km shear near 75 kt along with 0-1 km shear of 20-25 kt. This along
with the weak instability and strong large-scale ascent may be
enough for a marginal tornado threat. A few strong wind gusts will
be possible as well.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 10/29/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...

LAT...LON   41746998 42117022 42037140 41607176 41207147 41167086
            41417017 41746998 

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