SPC MD 1599



MD 1599 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL TX

MD 1599 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1599
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 AM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

Areas affected...Portions of western into central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 311220Z - 311445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail will be possible as storms continue to
develop and increase in coverage from west to east across western
into central Texas this morning.  While watch issuance is not
warranted for these elevated storms, areas downstream across central
Texas will be monitored for potential watch issuance later this
morning or early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Deep forcing for ascent is evident and emerging from NM
into west TX this morning, given the presence of ongoing nocturnal
thunderstorms continuing to develop and spread eastward ahead of a
progressive shortwave trough.  The combination of this ascent and
cooling 500-mb temperatures/steepening midlevel lapse rates
spreading east atop low-level warm advection/moistening, given
southerly low-level winds, suggests storms will continue to form
east this morning across western into central TX.

The western extent of a cold front has moved very little the last
several hours, and at 12Z extended from near KDAL to between KMWL
and KACT to just south of KSJT and KFST, and west-northwest to KGDP.
Short-term trends and guidance suggest most of the storms this
morning should remain elevated north of this front, where forcing
for ascent will be maximized within the nose of the southerly
low-level jet.  The presence of steepening midlevel lapse rates,
effective bulk shear around 40 kt and MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
should support a few strong to severe storms with isolated large
hail being the primary severe threat this morning. 

Meanwhile, objective analyses indicated the likelihood for
convection that forms near the cold front from north of KACT into
Hamilton to San Saba Counties would be surface based, given the lack
of inhibition, currently.  Given stronger forcing for ascent with
the southwest trough and a transient northeastward-moving impulse
from Mexico is expected to arrive across central TX later this
morning or early afternoon, in concert with stronger
destabilization, a watch issuance is not warranted in the short
term.  However, convective trends will be monitored for an increase
in storm development/intensities that would result in watch
issuance.

..Peters/Edwards.. 10/31/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32100181 32670102 33050043 33219993 33279921 33129862
            32389811 32029756 31209744 30749789 30489837 30339894
            30359952 30300077 30370135 30520174 30850205 31070214
            31460212 31850193 32100181 

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