SPC MD 1603


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Mesoscale Discussion 1603
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

Areas affected...the Big Bend...Edwards Plateau...and Hill Country
of Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 312232Z - 010100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will continue/develop from the Big Bend eastward
across the Edwards Plateau and into the Hill Country of Texas
through the evening. Hail is the primary threat, but strong wind
gusts are also possible.

DISCUSSION...A shortwave upper-level trough is driving southeast
across the southern Plains/Texas this evening spreading ascent over
most of Texas and eastward into Arkansas/Louisiana. An associated
cold front is driving southeastward across Texas stretching from MRF
to EDC and continuing northeastward. Over the Big Bend region
upper-level forcing has helped generate storms in a marginally
buoyant environment (250-750 J/kg of MLCAPE), but with moderate
shear present (effective bulk shear of 40-55 knots). Latest CAMs
guidance forecasts a broken line of storms with UH tracks moving
eastward through the evening even as the cold front pushes southward
likely undercutting this line of storms. However, it is likely the
upper-level forcing and modest buoyancy aloft will be sufficient to
continue/produce storms capable of severe hail and possibly strong
wind gusts. 

Farther to the east in the Hill Country/vicinity to the west/south
of the WW416, storms are beginning to develop along/ahead of the
cold front. A few of these storms are likely to become severe as
they develop within 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and effective bulk
shear of 40-50 knots. Once again, severe hail will be the primary
threat, but strong winds gusts and a brief tornado are also possible
with the strongest, surface-based storms. A watch issuance is
possible, but there is uncertainty regarding severe storm coverage
across the MD area.

..Nauslar/Guyer.. 10/31/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   28960294 29300314 29680309 30040288 30250257 30380218
            30270141 29819939 29719829 29779807 29769785 29589766
            29359758 29229756 29029755 28819757 28469767 28369809
            28239921 28169978 28200021 28290071 28960294 

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