SPC MD 1607



MD 1607 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST LA…MS…WESTERN TN

MD 1607 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1607
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1001 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

Areas affected...Southeast LA...MS...Western TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 010301Z - 010430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Tornado watch will likely be warranted downstream across
portions of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, and western Tennessee.
Primary severe threat will be after midnight across these regions.

DISCUSSION...Strong mid-level height falls will spread across the
lower MS Valley tonight ahead of progressive trough. In response to
this feature, expansive corridor of convection has developed along
frontal zone from the upper TX coast into northeast AR. The
strongest updrafts, with significant lightning, are currently
located across the upper TX coastal region where buoyancy is a bit
stronger than higher latitudes. Even so, strengthening shear
profiles across the lower MS Valley will undoubtedly enhance the
prospect for organized squall line along with a few supercells.
Greatest tornado risk will be with any discrete supercells that
evolve ahead of the frontal squall line. Tornado watch will likely
be issued by midnight to account for this overnight threat.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 11/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30009175 34659064 34488911 29729012 30009175 

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