SPC MD 1609


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Mesoscale Discussion 1609
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CDT Thu Nov 01 2018

Areas affected...the Lower Mississippi Valley

Concerning...Tornado Watch 418...419...

Valid 010619Z - 010815Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 418, 419 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues as a line of storms is moving
eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Tornadoes are the main
threat and the overall severe threat should continue for several
more hours.

DISCUSSION...The line of storms has organized and accelerated as it
continues moving eastward at 35-40 knots. It appears that
upper-level forcing has caught up with the line of storms over the
past couple of hours to cause this organization/strengthening. The
current line should move out of WW418 in the next 1-2 hours.
Additionally, the environment ahead of the current line of storms is
becoming destabilized with storm development currently over eastern
Louisiana. These storms will eventually be absorbed by the line, but
may become severe before that happens as they move north-northeast
in a favorable storm environment. The main threat remains tornadoes
as low-level winds back ahead of the line increasing low-level
shear, and this line and storms developing in front of it have a
history of producing tornadoes. Isolated damaging winds are also
possible near any bowing segments that develop within the line of
storms. The environment along/ahead of the line of storms will
remain favorable for severe weather through the night.

..Nauslar/Edwards.. 11/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   29639289 29899295 30149286 31029238 31529227 31849206
            32399172 32989147 33329132 33699104 33859085 33889041
            33868983 33698951 33028935 32178940 30568957 29598972
            29428997 29429053 29539236 29639289 

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