SPC MD 1613



MD 1613 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA

MD 1613 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1613
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0843 AM CDT Thu Nov 01 2018

Areas affected...the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia and
southeast Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 011343Z - 011545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will progress eastward across the
Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama and southern Georgia today,
with the main severe risk being damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms currently extends along the length of
central AL into the western FL Panhandle. The air mass ahead of this
line becomes much drier with eastward extent due to a surface ridge.
The 12Z TLH sounding showed almost no MUCAPE, with poor lapse rates
aloft. 

Southerly surface winds will persist throughout the day, although
there will be some veering as the main surface low continues to move
northward away from the region. This will allow marginal
destabilization across mainly the FL Panhandle, where a return to
68-70 F dewpoints will allow for a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE to
develop. Modest flow in the boundary layer along with heating/mixing
may aid wind gust potential with a primarily linear storm mode.
Additional activity ahead of the line is not expected due to the
weak instability and presence of an inversion below 700 mb.

..Jewell/Grams.. 11/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   30348662 30828637 31538624 31948505 31898413 31588354
            30988326 30318347 29928379 30038411 29758452 29528513
            29718542 29938561 30198597 30288633 30348662 

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