SPC MD 1620



MD 1620 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA

MD 1620 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1620
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Sun Nov 04 2018

Areas affected...southeastern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 041956Z - 042200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated damaging-wind threat may evolve with storms
along a frontal boundary on the western fringes of the discussion
area.  A WW issuance is not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...Recent satellite, radar, and lightning trends indicate
a consolidating and intensifying linear segment across
Ascension/Assumption Parishes in Louisiana at this time.  These
storms are in a destabilizing environment, with upper 70s F surface
temperatures and mid 60s F dewpoints contributing to 1000-1500 J/kg
MUCAPE within the pre-convective environment just ahead of the
storms.  Frontal forcing and continued destabilization will continue
to support forward propagation over the next couple of hours, with
at least a marginal/isolated risk of damaging winds expected over
the next hour or so.

It is uncertain how far east the threat with these storms will
persist.  Larger-scale forcing for ascent (associated with a
shortwave centered over the ArkLaTex) will shift northeastward away
from the region over time, which may lead to a weakening trend
despite ongoing destabilization and continued forcing from
frontal/outflow mechanisms.  As long as storms persist, a low-end
damaging wind threat will also exist, with storms migrating toward
the New Orleans Metro area through 21-22Z.

..Cook.. 11/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30329053 30358992 30298938 30118907 29798906 29188966
            29139005 29189069 29439123 29859126 30189090 30329053 

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