SPC MD 1622



MD 1622 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 422… FOR NORTHERN LA

MD 1622 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1622
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0505 PM CST Mon Nov 05 2018

Areas affected...northern LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 422...

Valid 052305Z - 060000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 422 continues.

SUMMARY...A favorable environment and supercellular storm type will
support a continued tornado risk with experimental guidance
suggesting damage intensities 80-135 mph (upper EF0-EF2).

DISCUSSION...KPOE and KSHV radar imagery show a cluster of
supercells in a southwest-northeast broken band and a few discrete
supercells located over north-central LA.  The storms are located in
a very moist boundary layer with surface dewpoints around 70 degrees
F and lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios 15-16 g/kg.  The KPOE VAD
shows strong speed shear in the lowest 1km (30 kt) with a veering
wind profile through the mid levels.  Given the favorable mesoscale
environment and supercellular storm type, the tornado risk will
continue downstream to the east-northeast across north-central LA
during the next hour.  Experimental probability guidance is
suggestive of damage intensities primarily within a 80-135 mph range
(upper EF0-EF2) with any ongoing or subsequently developing tornado.

..Smith.. 11/05/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

LAT...LON   32379342 32719198 32739137 32339120 32029174 31789272
            31639359 32379342 

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