SPC MD 1622


MD 1622 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1622
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0505 PM CST Mon Nov 05 2018

Areas affected...northern LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 422...

Valid 052305Z - 060000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 422 continues.

SUMMARY...A favorable environment and supercellular storm type will
support a continued tornado risk with experimental guidance
suggesting damage intensities 80-135 mph (upper EF0-EF2).

DISCUSSION...KPOE and KSHV radar imagery show a cluster of
supercells in a southwest-northeast broken band and a few discrete
supercells located over north-central LA.  The storms are located in
a very moist boundary layer with surface dewpoints around 70 degrees
F and lowest 100mb mean mixing ratios 15-16 g/kg.  The KPOE VAD
shows strong speed shear in the lowest 1km (30 kt) with a veering
wind profile through the mid levels.  Given the favorable mesoscale
environment and supercellular storm type, the tornado risk will
continue downstream to the east-northeast across north-central LA
during the next hour.  Experimental probability guidance is
suggestive of damage intensities primarily within a 80-135 mph range
(upper EF0-EF2) with any ongoing or subsequently developing tornado.

..Smith.. 11/05/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   32379342 32719198 32739137 32339120 32029174 31789272
            31639359 32379342 

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