SPC MD 1625



MD 1625 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MS INTO WEST-CENTRAL AL

MD 1625 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1625
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Mon Nov 05 2018

Areas affected...north-central MS into west-central AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 060531Z - 060630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some risk for a supercell tornado remains across
north-central MS and this risk may eventually move into west-central
AL later tonight.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KGWX and KDGX shows a couple of
quasi-discrete storms, including a supercell located over
north-central MS.  The airmass over this area is moderately unstable
with around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and surface dewpoints around 70 degrees
F.  Intense low-level shear is sampled from KGWX's VAD with around
500 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH when inputting the observed storm motion of the
Holmes County supercell.  KDGX VAD has begun to slightly veer in the
low levels and will probably contribute to a south delimiter of the
tornado risk (near I-20).  Composite parameters are conditionally
favorable for a continued risk of a tornado if any storm can
bootstrap itself and ingest surface-based effective inflow parcels. 
This area will be monitored for a small tornado watch.

..Smith/Edwards.. 11/06/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32779021 33269002 33688876 33568732 32998727 32779021 

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