SPC MD 1626



MD 1626 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY…FAR WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA…FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA

MD 1626 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1626
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CST Mon Nov 05 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Kentucky...Far western West Virginia...far
western Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 060544Z - 060745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong/severe wind gusts will be possible as a
squall line continues to push east into eastern Kentucky/western
West Virginia. Stable air with eastward extent should limit the
overall severe threat. No WW is expected.

DISCUSSION...Strong forcing from a mid-level shortwave has continued
to sustain a north/south oriented squall line across parts of
central Kentucky. As this line pushes east, it will encounter more
stable air and is expected to weaken over the next hour or two.
Nonetheless, very strong flow near-surface flow -- 40-50+ kts in the
surface to 1 km layer per KJKL VAD -- will support a few
strong/severe wind gusts. Given the increasingly limited buoyancy
and eventual departure of the forcing to the northeast, the
spatial/temporal extent of the severe threat appears too limited for
a WW.

..Wendt/Edwards.. 11/06/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   37388502 38178457 38578379 38468253 37838196 37178201
            36758255 36718418 36868476 37388502 

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