SPC Nov 5, 2018 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook



SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CST Mon Nov 05 2018

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms with locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado or two will be possible from a portion of the Southeast
States to the Middle Atlantic region.

...A portion of the Southeast States into Middle Atlantic region...

Surface low will occlude over the Great Lakes Tuesday morning in
association with a northeast-ejecting shortwave trough. Trailing
front will move off the Middle Atlantic seaboard by evening, but
southwest extension of this boundary will stall from southern
portions of the Gulf Coast States into TX. 

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing along and just ahead of a
cold front from the OH Valley into a part of the Gulf Coast states
with a modest risk for isolated damaging wind. This activity may
weaken as it crosses the Appalachians due to the very marginal
thermodynamic environment. A strong southerly low-level jet will
transport low-mid 60s F dewpoints into the Middle Atlantic region
contributing to potential for surface-based destabilization with
400-800 J/kg MLCAPE. Redevelopment of low-topped convection with
embedded thunderstorms may occur, especially from central/eastern
Carolinas to VA and eastern PA as the surface layer moistens and
destabilizes during the day. The convection will be embedded within
a strong kinematic environment with wind profiles supportive of
updraft rotation and a few bowing segments. Tendency for the deeper
forcing to shift north, away from the more unstable portion of the
warm sector and the overall weak thermodynamic environment remain
limiting factors, but feel threat is sufficient to maintain the
slight risk for this update.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   5%     - Slight
Wind:     15%     - Slight
Hail:     <5%     - None

..Dial.. 11/05/2018

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