SPC MD 1630



MD 1630 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LA/MS

MD 1630 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1630
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CST Wed Nov 07 2018

Areas affected...Portions of southern LA/MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 071854Z - 072100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds will remain possible through
the afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Multiple ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across
southern LA/MS will continue moving slowly eastward this afternoon.
Most of this convection is occurring to the south of surface front
draped east-west across the Southeast. A moist low-level airmass and
modest diurnal heating are contributing to around 1500-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE across the warm sector. VWP from KLIX radar shows generally
modest south-southwesterly winds in the 0-2 km AGL, but mid-level
winds do increase to around 30-35 kt. Similar magnitudes of
effective bulk shear will support at least some updraft organization
even though the stronger mid/upper-level winds will remain displaced
to the north of the surface front. Given a mainly multicell mode
observed so far, isolated instances of 40-60 mph winds producing
occasional tree damage should be the primary threat. Limited
hodograph curvature in the low levels owing to weak/veered winds
will probably limit a meaningful tornado threat, although some weak
low-level rotation has been noted recently with a couple cells
embedded within a larger cluster to the north of Lake Pontchartrain
in southeastern LA. Regardless, the lack of stronger shear will
likely limit the overall severe threat, and watch issuance is not
expected.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 11/07/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29679259 29939246 30339211 30769173 30669098 30669057
            31038990 31318969 31318847 30178837 29598891 29238958
            29069021 29039090 29309139 29389183 29479258 29679259 

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