SPC MD 1630


MD 1630 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1630
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CST Wed Nov 07 2018

Areas affected...Portions of southern LA/MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 071854Z - 072100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds will remain possible through
the afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Multiple ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across
southern LA/MS will continue moving slowly eastward this afternoon.
Most of this convection is occurring to the south of surface front
draped east-west across the Southeast. A moist low-level airmass and
modest diurnal heating are contributing to around 1500-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE across the warm sector. VWP from KLIX radar shows generally
modest south-southwesterly winds in the 0-2 km AGL, but mid-level
winds do increase to around 30-35 kt. Similar magnitudes of
effective bulk shear will support at least some updraft organization
even though the stronger mid/upper-level winds will remain displaced
to the north of the surface front. Given a mainly multicell mode
observed so far, isolated instances of 40-60 mph winds producing
occasional tree damage should be the primary threat. Limited
hodograph curvature in the low levels owing to weak/veered winds
will probably limit a meaningful tornado threat, although some weak
low-level rotation has been noted recently with a couple cells
embedded within a larger cluster to the north of Lake Pontchartrain
in southeastern LA. Regardless, the lack of stronger shear will
likely limit the overall severe threat, and watch issuance is not

..Gleason/Thompson.. 11/07/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   29679259 29939246 30339211 30769173 30669098 30669057
            31038990 31318969 31318847 30178837 29598891 29238958
            29069021 29039090 29309139 29389183 29479258 29679259 

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