SPC MD 1639


MD 1639 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1639
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CST Mon Nov 12 2018

Areas affected...southern Alabama into the Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 427...

Valid 122151Z - 122345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 427 continues.

SUMMARY...A brief tornado or strong wind gusts remain possible
across eastern portions of the watch area, from southern Alabama
into the Florida Panhandle, but the overall threat for severe
weather is likely to wane.

DISCUSSION...A broad zone of rain and thunderstorms persists ahead
of a cold front from the mouth of the MS River into southern AL, in
a zone of low-level warm advection supported by 30-40 kt
southwesterly 850 mb flow. Low-level winds will continue to veer
with time as the strongest lift shifts north of the region. For the
near-term, a localized area of 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH exists in
the vicinity of a warm front across the FL Panhandle and southeast
AL. The VWP at EVX radar does show sufficient shear to support a
supercell, though the large-scale pattern with a positive-tilt
trough and lack of heating is tending to minimize coverage of the
stronger storms. As such, only isolated severe wind gusts or perhaps
a brief tornado are expected, and a new watch may not be required.

..Jewell.. 11/12/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   29768537 30208615 30268667 30388704 30938716 31528643
            31668589 31678549 31608523 31238506 30758491 30328503
            29838501 29698507 29768537 

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