SPC MD 1642



MD 1642 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 428… FOR FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

MD 1642 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1642
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 AM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

Areas affected...Far eastern North Carolina and adjacent coastal
waters

Concerning...Tornado Watch 428...

Valid 130846Z - 130945Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 428 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for a tornado or two will remain through the early
morning hours. A strong thunderstorm wind gust will also be
possible.

DISCUSSION...Low-level theta-e advection on the nose of
south-southeasterly flow has contributed to modest destabilization
along/near the North Carolina coast. Here, mixed-layer CAPE values
have increased to between 500-1000 J/kg, in the presence of
storm-relative helicity between 300-500 m2/s2 per regional VADs.
Additionally, deep-layer shear is on the order of 60 knots. The
combination of modest instability and strong low-level/deep-layer
shear will yield an environment favorable for updraft rotation with
any thunderstorm that can remain somewhat discrete. This is
evidenced by periodic supercell-like structures being observed over
coastal waters by regional radars.

Additionally, given the strength of the low-level flow (on the order
of 40-45 knots), a strong thunderstorm wind gust or two cannot be
ruled out within the stronger thunderstorm cores.

..Marsh.. 11/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

LAT...LON   33287880 33677920 33897923 34257874 34557823 35837665
            36047602 36067562 35667542 35207548 34997608 34547650
            33907789 33287880 

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