SPC MD 1643



MD 1643 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 428… FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NC…INCLUDING OUTER BANKS.

MD 1643 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1643
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 AM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

Areas affected...Portions of extreme eastern NC...including Outer
Banks.

Concerning...Tornado Watch 428...

Valid 131057Z - 131300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 428 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe-weather threat is decreasing from west to east
across the region, but remains for another 1-2 hours over the Outer
Banks and adjacent waters.  Remaining portions of tornado watch 428
can be cleared behind the primary convective band.

DISCUSSION...The severe threat has compressed into and east of the
primary convective band, located at 1045Z along or just ahead of the
surface cold front across the western Pamlico Sound region, and
southwestward through an intermittently intense supercell northeast
of MHX.  To its east, on either side of HSE, backed surface winds
and related 400-600 J/kg effective SRH remain, as sampled by
preconvective MHX VWP and forecast in the short-term RAP soundings. 
The remaining preconvective warm sector also is characterized by
rich low-level moisture, with surface dew points upper 60s to low
70s from the central Outer Banks southward.  Some potential for
airmass recovery exists east of the convection over north-central
Outer Banks before the activity passes in the next 1-2 hours.  As
such, the tornado and isolated damaging-wind risk will remain with
convection crossing the Outer Banks.  Farther west, the severe
threat ends with veered surface winds, diminished shear, weak to no
boundary-layer convergence, and buoyancy lessened by a combination
of cold advection, nocturnal/diabatic cooling and convective
outflow.

..Edwards.. 11/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...

LAT...LON   34677682 34817679 36047566 35657541 35127554 35227558
            35087596 34757639 34507652 34657658 34687674 34677682 

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