SPC MD 1652


MD 1652 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1652
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 AM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 160856Z - 161500Z

SUMMARY...One area of heavy snow with rates in excess of 1 inch per
hour will develop northeastward across northern New England this
morning. Another area of moderate to locally heavy snow, with rates
up to 1 inch per hour, will move across eastern PA into southern New

DISCUSSION...Within large-scale upper troughing encompassing much of
the central and eastern CONUS, a compact shortwave trough will
continue moving quickly northeastward over the Mid-Atlantic and New
England regions this morning. A deepening surface low associated
with this shortwave trough will likewise develop northeastward along
the coast of southern New England. A band of moderate to heavy snow
is occurring over western/northern NY, attendant to strong forcing
for ascent and a mid-level deformation zone immediately ahead of the
shortwave trough. Snowfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour will
likely continue for at least the next several hours as this band
develops into northern New England.

Across parts of central/eastern PA, northern NJ, southern NY, and
southern New England, a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain have
all been observed recently as strong low-level warm air advection
has allowed for at least some melting of hydrometeors. However, a
quick transition back to mainly snow is likely from west to east
this morning as cold mid/upper-level temperatures embedded within
the core of the shortwave trough overspread these areas. Forecast
soundings from the NAM and RAP both suggest that there will be
sufficient wrap-around moisture remaining within the dendritic
growth zone and steepening mid-level lapse rates to support moderate
to locally heavy snow for a couple of hours. Snowfall rates up to 1
inch per hour may occur. This scenario is well supported by recent
high-resolution guidance, including most HREF members. A rapid
decrease in snowfall intensity/coverage will likely be noted from
west to east through the morning, as strong subsidence and mid-level
drying behind the shortwave trough passage suppress precipitation

..Gleason.. 11/16/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   43667018 42917138 42457230 41937334 40907478 40407593
            40217652 40257704 41037762 41687752 43387669 44457594
            45047489 45087164 45387140 45447091 45837051 46087035
            46257028 46417018 46566969 46536828 46286771 45706771
            45216802 44626873 43996958 43667018 

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