SPC MD 1662



MD 1662 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR NORTHEAST MISSOURI…FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA…PORTIONS OF WESTERN ILLINOIS

MD 1662 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1662
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CST Sun Nov 25 2018

Areas affected...Northeast Missouri...far southeast Iowa...portions
of western Illinois

Concerning...Blizzard 

Valid 252157Z - 260200Z

SUMMARY...Rain/wintry mixed precipitation across the area is
expected to transition to snow with eastward progression of the
surface low. 1-2 inch/hour snowfall rates appear likely, with
blizzard conditions moving into parts of the area over the next few
hours.

DISCUSSION...A 996 mb surface low continues to track northeast
across Missouri into Illinois. Heavy snow has been abundant well to
the north of the low, along a stationary front aloft, and within the
northwest quadrant of the surface low, where blizzard conditions
have been reported in numerous locales. The eastward progressing,
deepening upper-level trough will encourage maintenance (and perhaps
some strengthening) of the low's intensity, suggesting that blizzard
conditions will continue within the northwest quadrant, particularly
in northeast Missouri into far west Illinois. 

A jet of deep moisture within the 925-850 mb layer will continue to
saturate the low-level airmass within proximity/north of the low,
with rapid ascent expected across the discussion area, where 700 mb
frontogenesis is quite strong, and saturation has already been noted
within the dendritic growth/-12 to -17C layer. The surface freezing
line is rapidly moving into the area from the west, and deep-layer
cooling is expected. As such, a transition to snow is expected, with
1-2 inch/hr rates likely.

..Squitieri.. 11/25/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

LAT...LON   40038966 39909073 39719144 39609239 39939219 40359187
            40829153 41309106 41329029 41148924 40738880 40038966 

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