SPC MD 1674


MD 1674 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1674
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1032 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

Areas affected...Central/North-Central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 010432Z - 010600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible with the
thunderstorms developing across central TX. The spatial and temporal
extent of the severe threat is uncertain but trends are being
monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Storms have recently developed along the leading edge
of the strong forcing for ascent associated with the ejecting
mid/upper trough and associated jet max. Low-level wind fields are
beginning to veer ahead of the line and the strongest low/mid-level
winds are displaced northeastward. Even so, effective bulk shear is
more than supportive of rotating storms and cool mid-level
temperatures are contributing to a modest increase in instability.
These factors, as well as the linear nature to the forcing for
ascent, suggest that a linear storm mode is preferred with a primary
threat large hail. Damaging wind gusts are also possible, but
low-level stability shown in forecast soundings will likely mitigate
this threat somewhat. Initial development has the highest likelihood
to produce severe hail with a transition to more of a damaging wind
threat thereafter. Trends will be monitored for possible watch

..Mosier/Goss.. 12/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   32349709 32499682 32569635 32349570 31809576 31449590
            31089612 30749643 30539691 30439727 30389801 30659845
            31729749 32349709 

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