SPC MD 1675


MD 1675 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1675
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

Areas affected...Southeast KS...Southern MO...Eastern OK...Most of
AR...Northeast TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 429...430...431...

Valid 010520Z - 010645Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 429, 430, 431 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two
continues along the convective line extending from southeast KS into
central TX.

DISCUSSION...A coherent QLCS extends from southeast KS southward
through eastern OK and into central TX. Portion of the line in KS
and OK is tied to the forcing for ascent associated with the
ejecting mid/upper trough. Strongly forced nature of this convection
has allowed it to persist and organize within the strongly sheared
but only moderately unstable environment. Threat for all severe
hazards remains in this region but the primary threat appears to be
transitioning to damaging wind gusts. Embedded vortices are possible
as the convective line undergoes localized bowing. Increasing
low-level stability north of the warm front (currently analyzed from
far southeast KS to the MO boot hill) will contribute to a gradually
diminishing threat with northward extent.

Farther south, forcing for ascent is a bit weaker but the
thermodynamic environment is more favorable, leading to a
continuation of the convective line all the way into central TX. The
best overlap between forcing for ascent, favorable thermodynamics,
and strong kinematics is northeast TX. This area appears to have the
best chance for a tornado. The approaching convective line results
in a less favorable storm mode, but the strength of the low-level
shear supports QLCS tornado potential.

..Mosier.. 12/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   36249540 37829577 37959339 35559170 33179223 32399517
            32499655 33369624 34619531 36249540 

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