SPC MD 1689


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Mesoscale Discussion 1689
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0918 PM CST Sat Dec 01 2018

Areas affected...FL Panhandle...Southeast AL...Southwest GA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 435...

Valid 020318Z - 020445Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 435 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or
two continues.

DISCUSSION...Widespread convection is ongoing across WW 435 as of
03Z, though thus far storms have remained generally disorganized.
The environment remains favorable for rotating updrafts, especially
across southeast AL into the FL Panhandle, where MLCAPE of 500-1500
J/kg and effective shear of 45-60 kt remains in place. Training of
cells and a tendency for new development to quickly move north of
the effective surface boundary has limited the opportunity for
storms to mature, though at least transient storm rotation remains
possible, accompanied by a threat for locally damaging wind and/or a
brief tornado or two. 

With time, the bulk of the convection may eventually move toward the
eastern edge of the watch as the primary low-level jet shifts
northeastward, though some redevelopment will remain possible along
the surface boundary into southeast AL and the FL Panhandle. There
is some potential for modest destabilization across southern GA as
the effective boundary tries to move northward, which would increase
the severe potential somewhat across that part of the watch compared
to what is currently observed. 

The ongoing long-duration, low-magnitude severe threat may continue
into the overnight hours. However, it is possible that the watch
will be canceled early if there is no increase in convective
organization over the next hour or so, with the understanding that
locally damaging wind or perhaps a brief tornado cannot be ruled out
through the remainder of the night.

..Dean/Goss.. 12/02/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   31048675 31568575 32138356 32048319 31748295 31358283
            30968286 30758297 30228336 30128384 30108422 30148470
            30158509 30188551 30268576 30278638 30458675 31048675 

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