SPC MD 1691



MD 1691 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA…FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE

MD 1691 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1691
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 AM CST Sun Dec 02 2018

Areas affected...southern Georgia...far southeast Alabama and parts
of the northern Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 020803Z - 021030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Periodic supercells with a threat of damaging wind or a
tornado remain possible this morning across southern Georgia and
possibly points southwest, and an additional tornado watch may be
needed.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms currently extends from the northern
Gulf of Mexico across southeast AL and into southern GA near a
warm/moist axis at 850 mb, and oriented nearly parallel to the
mid/upper flow. Surface analysis shows relatively cool air over
southeast GA as a result of outflow from earlier storms, with
southwesterly surface winds aiding airmass recovery into southwest
GA. Indeed, supercells were recently noted near the Albany GA area,
near where the air mass is recovering and just west of the
cooler/more stable air mass.

Given persistent southwest flow in the low levels, additional
airmass recovery may occur across the remainder of southern GA
tonight. Little change is expected overall in the wind fields as
40-50 kt 850 mb flow persists, with around 50 kt midlevel flow.
Sufficient veering with height will maintain favorable effective SRH
within a sufficiently unstable air mass, with isolated severe storms
possible.

..Jewell/Edwards.. 12/02/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   31108603 31658518 32008456 32248385 32408304 32338241
            32058191 31708168 31248172 30918184 30658233 30508352
            30368445 30418535 30428603 30718616 31108603 

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