SPC MD 1692


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Mesoscale Discussion 1692
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0600 AM CST Sun Dec 02 2018

Areas affected...southern Georgia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 436...

Valid 021200Z - 021400Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 436 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across the
watch area, and may spread into southeast Georgia this morning.

DISCUSSION...Storms remain ongoing in a southwest to northeast
oriented zone from the western FL Panhandle across much of southern
GA. Supercell trends have decreased over the past few hours, but
several substantial storms remain ongoing with modest outflow and
shear zones noted on radar.

Latest surface observations show a gradual northeastward advection
of the near 70 F temperatures and upper 60s F dewpoints due to
persistent southwesterly flow (50 kt at 1km) which is helping to
erode the cooler outflow air. This in turn will allow effective SRH
to rise over southeast GA this morning (the VAX VWP currently shows
upwards of 300 m2/s2), and will increase the threat of damaging
winds or a brief tornado. Storm trends will continue to be monitored
for any increase and the need for another watch.

..Jewell.. 12/02/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   30788553 31308461 31788309 32118212 32448155 32358119
            31878098 31248111 30988164 30828260 30758382 30548500
            30568541 30788553 

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