SPC MD 1694



MD 1694 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN OHIO INTO FAR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA

MD 1694 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1694
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CST Sun Dec 02 2018

Areas affected...Northern and northeastern Ohio into far northwest
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 022128Z - 022300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed in northern
Ohio. These storms may lead to some gusty winds through the
afternoon. No watch is expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...Showers have developed across northern Ohio this
afternoon ahead of a potent mid-level shortwave. Some of these
showers have had lightning at times. Surface based instability is
limited ahead of this convection as dewpoints mixed out into the low
40s. However, MUCAPE around 250 J/kg will be sufficient for
continued occasional thunderstorms from this activity. Given the
well-mixed boundary layer ahead of this convection, and the strong
wind field, isolated damaging wind gusts are possible with the
stronger storms. No watch is anticipated at this time due to
questions about the number of strong updrafts which can develop in
the limited buoyancy environment, but trends will continue to be
monitored.

..Bentley.. 12/02/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   41608319 40968334 40398337 40238325 40378210 40668104
            41308018 41847994 42297995 42418052 42068189 41608319 

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