SPC MD 1696



MD 1696 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST FL

MD 1696 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1696
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0855 AM CST Mon Dec 03 2018

Areas affected...Northeast FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 031455Z - 031630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated damaging wind and perhaps a
tornado will peak within the hour in northeast FL.

DISCUSSION...An embedded supercell has emerged from a larger area of
convection that will approach the northeast FL coast of Duval and
northern Saint Johns counties by 1530z.  The near-storm environment
will remain favorable for the embedded rotating updrafts given some
low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH close to 200 m2/s2) and
effective bulk shear near 50 kt, in a moist environment with MLCAPE
of 1000-1500 J/kg.  However, regional VWPs show a gradual tendency
for low-level flow to veer to more westerly and low-level shear to
weaken.  This should result in a diminishing threat for a tornado
beyond 1530z, though an isolated damaging gust could still be
possible through late morning into early afternoon.  Given the
short-term nature of the threat, a watch appears unlikely.

..Thompson/Hart.. 12/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...

LAT...LON   29778117 29578186 29818235 30178224 30428173 30328131
            29778117 

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