SPC MD 1697



MD 1697 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST

MD 1697 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1697
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 PM CST Fri Dec 07 2018

Areas affected...portions of the middle/upper Texas coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 080409Z - 080545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Limited/isolated risk for gusty/damaging winds or a
brief/weak tornado will exist over the next few hours within the
discussion area.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows the northwestern
periphery of the warm sector -- east and northeast of a surface low
in the vicinity of PSX -- resides just slightly inland in the
Galveston area.  The warm sector is characterized thermodynamically
by a moist boundary layer but weak lapse rates aloft, and
kinematically by veering/increasing flow with height providing shear
sufficient for organized convection.  Within this environment, a
band of semi-organized convection -- embedded within the
larger/broader area of precipitation across the region -- is moving
across the Houston metro area at this time.  With some bowing
observed in the line, and an occasional/very weak low-level
circulation, an isolated stronger/locally damaging wind gust or even
a brief tornado will be possible.  

With the low progged to move east-northeast along/just off the Texas
coast, the warm sector may penetrate just slightly inland near the
mouth of the Sabine River -- and thus very limited severe risk may
reach extreme southwest Louisiana over the next couple of hours.

..Goss/Grams.. 12/08/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   28619547 29469511 29779468 29869417 29759382 29629359
            29249346 28749443 28539496 28619547 

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