SPC MD 1700



MD 1700 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA

MD 1700 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1700
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0932 PM CST Sat Dec 08 2018

Areas affected...Western North Carolina into extreme southwestern
Virginia

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 090332Z - 090900Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow will develop across western NC over the next
few hours then spread toward extreme southwestern VA. Snow rates may
approach 1-2" per hour at times.

DISCUSSION...Significant large-scale forcing for ascent is spreading
from AL/TN region ahead of a progressive short-wave trough. Leading
edge of this forcing appears to be spreading into the southern
Appalachians at 0330z with substantial precipitation, roughly 200 mi
wide, trailing into central AL. Back edge of this stronger zone of
ascent is moving east at roughly 30-35kt which suggests residence
time in this heavier precip shield may last at least 6 hours. Wedge
of cooler air is banked against the higher terrain across western NC
and forecast soundings suggest much of this initial precip will fall
as snow. However, forecast soundings exhibit substantial warming at
AVL after 10z which correlates well with back edge of aforementioned
zone of ascent. A mix of precipitation after 10z could spread across
the southern half of western NC. Latest HREF Ensemble guidance
supports this scenario with snow rates approaching 1-2" per hour.

..Darrow.. 12/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   35598328 36508183 36738084 36288027 35628119 35148276
            35598328 

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