SPC MD 1702


MD 1702 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1702
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CST Sun Dec 09 2018

Areas affected...Portions of northern SC...western/central NC...far
eastern TN...and southern VA

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 090808Z - 091315Z

SUMMARY...Snow, sleet, and freezing rain will continue this morning.
Heavy snow, with rates of 1-2 inches per hour, should be most common
across parts of western/central NC into southern VA. Freezing rain,
with rates potentially up to 0.10 inch per hour, may develop over
portions of northern SC into southern/central NC.

DISCUSSION...A large precipitation shield has overspread parts of
the Southeast into the southern Mid-Atlantic this morning ahead of a
southern-stream shortwave trough over the lower MS Valley. Moderate
to heavy snow has been observed over western NC and vicinity over
the past couple of hours as cold air damming related to a strong
surface high centered over PA remains in place over parts of NC/SC
and VA. Enhanced snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour should become
common across portions of western/central NC into southern VA
through 13Z as strong lift occurring through a saturated dendritic
growth zone supports efficient wet snow production.

A transition to sleet, freezing rain, and eventually rain should
occur from south to north for portions of northern SC into
southern/central NC and vicinity as temperatures within the 900-700
mb layer gradually warn above freezing. At 08Z, the surface wetbulb
freezing line extends from roughly AVL to RDU in NC, and how much
farther south it will advance this morning remains unclear. The
timing of the changeover from snow to sleet/freezing rain also
remains uncertain, but most short-term guidance suggests it will
occur first in western SC (as recently observed at KGSP), and
gradually spread northeastward into southern/central NC over the
next few hours. Given the ongoing light to moderate precipitation
noted on area radars, freezing rain rates up to 0.10 inch per hour
may occur, but surface temperatures near freezing across this region
may tend to limit ice accretion outside of the higher terrain.

..Gleason.. 12/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   35288307 35808303 36918172 37258068 37227953 36817820
            36357781 35827802 35227910 34868057 34738278 35288307 

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