SPC MD 1716



MD 1716 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA

MD 1716 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1716
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 AM CST Thu Dec 20 2018

Areas affected...portions of central and southern Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 201238Z - 201415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Given the expectation that severe/tornado risk will
gradually increase through this morning and into the afternoon,
tornado watch issuance will likely be required prior to 20/14Z.

DISCUSSION...As a leading band of south-southwest- to
north-northeast-oriented convection continues spreading inland
between Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor on the west coast of Florida,
offshore updrafts exhibiting low-level rotation continue to move
onshore.  This trend is expected to continue, with additional bands
of convection to move across the eastern Gulf and inland as the day
progresses -- bands currently evident over the eastern Gulf in
satellite and lightning loops.

While early-morning visible imagery shows extensive cloud cover
across much of central and south Florida, modest destabilization of
the boundary layer, along with continued moistening, should combine
with a very favorably sheared lower and middle troposphere to
support gradually increasing severe risk with time.  Along with
increasing risk for damaging winds, a few tornadoes will also become
increasingly likely.  

Given this, expect tornado watch issuance to occur within the next
hour or so.

..Goss/Edwards.. 12/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   29398096 29148057 28188027 27238053 25788162 25818213
            26428245 27208248 28538178 29398096 

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