SPC MD 1717


MD 1717 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1717
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0949 AM CST Thu Dec 20 2018

Areas affected...central Florida

Concerning...Tornado Watch 439...

Valid 201549Z - 201745Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 439 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe storms including supercells should remain focused
along an outflow boundary, with tornadoes and damaging wind gusts

DISCUSSION...Strong southerly flow in a warm advection regime is
currently aiding lift as well as enhancing shear profiles across FL
where storms are currently situated southwest-northeast across
central FL. While northern portions of this line continue to shift
east, southwestern parts are becoming stationary and/or lifting
north. Meanwhile, upstream heating and moisture advection persists
with MLCAPE in excess of 1200 J/kg.

Through afternoon, strong low-level wind fields will persist while
instability gradually increases. A corridor of tornado or damaging
wind threat will likely consolidate near the aforementioned
boundary, with a few supercells possible. Further, a cold front is
consolidated just off the west coast, and will further aid lift and
enhance storm coverage later today. Where this front intersects the
other may be a favored location for tornado potential.

..Jewell/Hart.. 12/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   28168038 27428042 26518108 26228171 26448212 26768241
            27078266 27538266 27908234 28148182 28418140 28968120
            29298109 29248079 28528049 28168038 

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