SPC MD 1719



MD 1719 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA

MD 1719 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1719
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CST Thu Dec 20 2018

Areas affected...portions of coastal South and North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 202112Z - 202345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms offshore will begin to approach the coastal
Carolinas by this evening with the potential for strong wind gusts
and a tornado or two.  Trends are being monitored for the
possibility of a watch by 00Z/7 pm EST.

DISCUSSION...Latest mesoanalysis shows a warm front extending from
southeast VA  southwest across central SC.  Regional radar composite
shows widespread rain across the discussion area, with a north-south
line of thunderstorms offshore of the NC/SC coast.  Latest high-res
guidance indicates these thunderstorms will approach the coast
through this evening, with storms continuing to move north/northeast
across eastern NC through the late evening hours.

Largely unidirectional winds throughout the lower-mid troposphere
will increase significantly in speeds through this evening,
resulting in southerly deep-layer shear values of 50-65 kts. 
Concurrently, weak buoyancy will develop inland as slightly higher
theta-e air advects northward.  Thunderstorms moving inland and over
adjacent coastal waters will be oriented in line segments posing a
risk for damaging winds.  Very strong low-level SRH in excess of 300
m2/s2 will support storm-scale rotation and the possibility for a
tornado or two.

Radar and environmental trends will continue to be monitored for the
possibility of a watch by early evening.

..Bunting/Hart.. 12/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...

LAT...LON   32367969 32878009 33587970 34687876 35227783 35877673
            35957599 35917526 35307513 34007708 33247842 32367969 

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