SPC MD 1720


MD 1720 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1720
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CST Thu Dec 20 2018

Areas affected...Southeastern Florida

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440...

Valid 202255Z - 210100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440

SUMMARY...An overall weakening trend has been observed in the
ongoing convection in WW 440. A small area of modest instability
still exists over southeast Florida. A strong wind gust or two will
be the main threats for the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...Per regional radar mosaic imagery, the gust front along
the line of storms from near West Palm Beach to the portions of the
Florida Keys has moved out ahead of convection. As this has
occurred, an overall weakening trend has been observed in the
ongoing convection. This is particularly true in northern portions
of WW 440 where instability is lower than points to the south.

With 40-50 kts of flow within the 850-700 mb layer, potential for a
strong wind gust will exist over far southeastern Florida where
MLCAPE will be maximized at 1000-1500 J/kg. However, weak mid-level
lapse rates, boundary-parallel deep layer shear, and a stabilizing
boundary layer should limit overall storm intensity/organization.

..Wendt.. 12/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   25398109 26068076 26748033 27018001 26547958 25058006
            24558065 24508125 24478168 24608198 24888170 25398109 

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