SPC MD 1728



MD 1728 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE…SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA…NORTH TEXAS

MD 1728 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1728
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Texas Panhandle...Southwest
Oklahoma...North Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 262258Z - 270000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A wind damage threat will likely develop this evening
across parts of southwest Oklahoma into north Texas. A brief tornado
or two will be possible as well. Weather watch issuance will be
needed across the region shortly.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a squall-line from the
southeast Texas Panhandle extending south-southeastward into
west-central Texas. This line will continue to move eastward into an
axis of moderate instability where MLCAPE values are estimated by
the RAP to be in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, the
Frederick WSR-88D VWP shows 0-6 km shear of 60-65 kt with veering
winds with height in the lowest 2 km AGL. This environment will
favorable for wind damage as the line moves eastward. An isolated
tornado threat can not be ruled out with the more intense bowing
structures within the line.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 12/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   33499985 32429989 31730003 31100040 30670067 30440054
            30140016 30179891 30259725 30639688 31399663 32059698
            33259754 33609783 33809836 33889972 33639986 33499985 

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